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Four years. That is how long Raoul Pal says the world has left before it enters the most uncertain economic stretch most of us will ever live through. And in a recent conversation, he laid out exactly why he thinks there is only one asset built to carry you through to the other side.
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and one of the most closely followed macro researchers in the world, has been making the economic singularity call for years. What has changed is the clock. He first put the window at six years out. He now puts it at four. And what has sharpened his conviction is not just the currency debasement thesis he has been vocal about for over a decade. It is what is stacking on top of it. Autonomous agents are beginning to transact on their own. Increasing amounts of economic activity are settling onchain.
Put those three forces together, debasement, AI agents, and onchain settlement, and his question becomes almost rhetorical. Why would anyone sell an asset sitting at the center of all three?
He frames Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory through Metcalfe’s Law. Plot a network’s value against the square of its users and draw a log regression channel across the curve and you get a rough sense of where the market cap is heading across cycles, not week to week.
That is also where his never sell, buy every month philosophy comes from. It is less a trading strategy and more a mechanical habit designed to remove emotion from the equation entirely. He calls Bitcoin humanity’s pension plan, not because it replaces a 401k, but because it gives ordinary people a way to own a piece of the infrastructure that the agentic economy will eventually run on.
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Email: jamin@cryptonutshell.com
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Disclaimer: This video is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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